Caro-Kann vs Sicilian: Lichess scores at 1000–1599
Against 1.e4 at 1000–1599 on Lichess, the two defences score almost the same; what changes is what White plays against each, and how Black scores there.
You have decided to stop answering 1.e4 with 1…e5 and you hesitate between the Caro-Kann and the Sicilian. We looked at what happens with each one in the Lichess opening book, for players whose average rating is between 1000 and 1599.
How to read the figures. A score is Black's share of the points: a win counts 1, a draw ½. We count occurrences of a position followed by a move, transpositions and repetitions included, so one game can count more than once. Unless a band is named, a figure covers players averaging 1000–1599, all time controls mixed. Figures are cut at one decimal. They are observed results: they do not control for the rating gap between players, and changing opening guarantees nothing.
Almost a tie
| Black's score | 1000–1199 | 1200–1399 | 1400–1599 | 1600–1799 | 1800–1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caro-Kann (1…c6) | 50.7 % | 50.9 % | 51.3 % | 50.9 % | 50.3 % |
| Sicilian (1…c5) | 50.6 % | 50.6 % | 50.8 % | 50.3 % | 49.8 % |
At 1000–1599, the Caro-Kann scores 51.1 % for Black and the Sicilian 50.7 %: less than one point apart. Both do better than 1…e5 (47.0 %), the most played reply at these levels. The Sicilian is more common: 12.8 % of replies to 1.e4, against 5.6 % for the Caro-Kann.
The difference is elsewhere: in what White plays against each one.
Against the Caro-Kann: two moves out of three are 2.Nf3 or 2.d4
| White's 2nd move | Share | Black's score |
|---|---|---|
| 2.Nf3 | 35.7 % | 51.5 % |
| 2.d4 | 32.6 % | 49.5 % |
| 2.Bc4 | 10.3 % | 54.3 % |
| 2.Nc3 | 7.2 % | 51.4 % |
| 2.f4 | 3.2 % | 49.8 % |
| 2.d3 | 3.0 % | 51.4 % |
After 2.Nf3, Black scores 51.5 %; after 2.d4, the main line, 49.5 %. After 2.d4 d5, White's third move matters:
- 3.e5, the Advance Variation, half of the occurrences (49.7 %): 49.9 % for Black;
- 3.exd5, the Exchange Variation (26.3 %): 50.6 %;
- 3.Nc3 (16.3 %): 47.6 %, the lowest of the three.
2.Bc4, the bishop's usual square against 1…e5, is 10.3 % of the moves recorded after 1.e4 c6. In the Caro-Kann, 2…d5 attacks it straight away, and Black scores 54.3 % after 2.Bc4.
Against the Sicilian: close to half of the replies are 2.Nf3
| White's 2nd move | Share | Black's score |
|---|---|---|
| 2.Nf3 | 48.9 % | 50.0 % |
| 2.Bc4 | 14.5 % | 52.3 % |
| 2.d4 | 8.9 % | 50.6 % |
| 2.Nc3 | 7.8 % | 50.7 % |
| 2.c3 | 4.1 % | 48.3 % |
| 2.f4 | 3.8 % | 49.8 % |
2.Nf3 is close to half of the moves recorded after 1.e4 c5 (48.9 %), and Black scores 50.0 % there. After it, Black's own choice changes the result little: 2…Nc6 (49.6 %), 2…d6 (50.4 %), 2…e6 (51.3 %). Against 2.Bc4 (14.5 %), Black scores 52.3 %. Among these six moves, the one that scores best for White is 2.c3, the Alapin: Black is down to 48.3 %, but it is only 4.1 % of the moves recorded.
Which one to choose
- On the results, it hardly matters. 51.1 % against 50.7 % at 1000–1599: pick the one whose positions you like.
- With the Caro-Kann, prepare 2.d4. It is 32.6 % of the replies recorded after 1.e4 c6, and Black scores 49.5 % after it. Prepare the 2…d5 lines, 3.Nc3 especially (47.6 %).
- With the Sicilian, prepare 2.Nf3, then the Alapin. 2.Nf3 is close to half of the moves recorded after 1.e4 c5; 2.c3 is rarer, but it is where Black scores least (48.3 %).
- Against 2.Bc4, both score above 52 %: 54.3 % with the Caro-Kann, 52.3 % with the Sicilian.
To try them on the board: the Caro-Kann and the Sicilian in the app, and our move-by-move guides to the Caro-Kann and the Sicilian. The scores of 20 openings at every level are in Which openings score best at your level.
Method
Source: ClickHouse table chess.opening_book (Lichess games 2013–2025, aggregated by position and rating band), queried on 8 October 2026. A band is the average of the two players' Lichess ratings; "1000–1599" sums the bands 1000–1199, 1200–1399 and 1400–1599. For each position, the occurrences of every move recorded from it and the result of their games. "Share" is the share of occurrences of a move among all moves recorded from the position. Score = (Black wins + ½ draws) / occurrences.
Check it on your own games
Import a game from Lichess or Chess.com: Stockfish finds the moments that mattered, the coach explains them move by move.