Italian, Ruy Lopez or Scotch: Lichess scores at 1000–1599
After 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 at 1000–1599 on Lichess: how each third move scores for White, Black's replies to each, and two traps where the result swings by more than 20 points.
After 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6, White chooses between 3.Bc4 (the Italian), 3.Bb5 (the Ruy Lopez) and 3.d4 (the Scotch). We looked at how each one scores for White in the Lichess opening book, for players whose average rating is between 1000 and 1599.
How to read the figures. A score is White's share of the points: a win counts 1, a draw ½. We count occurrences of a position followed by a move, transpositions and repetitions included, so one game can count more than once. Unless a band is named, a figure covers players averaging 1000–1599, all time controls mixed. Figures are cut at one decimal. They are observed results: they do not control for the rating gap between players, and changing opening guarantees nothing.
3.d4 scores the most, 3.Bc4 is played the most
| White's 3rd move | Share | White's score |
|---|---|---|
| 3.Bc4 | 42.0 % | 52.8 % |
| 3.Bb5 | 20.8 % | 53.2 % |
| 3.d4 | 16.6 % | 55.1 % |
| 3.Nc3 | 12.8 % | 50.5 % |
| 3.c3 | 3.5 % | 52.1 % |
| 3.d3 | 1.5 % | 48.9 % |
3.Bc4 is 42.0 % of the moves recorded in this position and scores 52.8 % for White. 3.Bb5 scores 53.2 %; 3.d4, the Scotch, 55.1 %, the most of the six moves shown. The order holds in the five bands shown:
| White's score | 1000–1199 | 1200–1399 | 1400–1599 | 1600–1799 | 1800–1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italian (3.Bc4) | 53.0 % | 52.8 % | 52.6 % | 52.5 % | 52.0 % |
| Ruy Lopez (3.Bb5) | 53.4 % | 53.2 % | 53.2 % | 53.5 % | 53.7 % |
| Scotch (3.d4) | 54.7 % | 55.1 % | 55.3 % | 55.0 % | 54.4 % |
The Italian: Black's third move changes the score
| Black's reply | Share | White's score |
|---|---|---|
| 3…Nf6 | 32.3 % | 54.0 % |
| 3…Bc5 | 28.5 % | 51.2 % |
| 3…h6 | 16.4 % | 53.2 % |
| 3…d6 | 7.7 % | 52.8 % |
| 3…Nd4 | 4.8 % | 47.7 % |
| 3…Be7 | 1.8 % | 49.4 % |
Against 3…Nf6, the Two Knights (32.3 %), White scores 54.0 %; against 3…Bc5 (28.5 %), 51.2 %.
The Two Knights: reaching or avoiding the Fried Liver
4.Ng5 is 34.6 % of White's answers to 3…Nf6, and Black replies 4…d5 in 73.1 % of the occurrences. After 5.exd5, Black's replies score very differently:
- 5…Nxd5 (55.6 %): White scores 63.4 %, and 70.7 % after the knight sacrifice 6.Nxf7, the Fried Liver;
- 5…Na5 (31.6 %), which attacks the bishop: 47.6 %;
- 5…Nd4 (8.4 %): 39.8 %.
After 6.Nxf7 Kxf7 7.Qf3+, the king is out in the open and the knight on d5 is attacked.
The Blackburne–Shilling trap: 3…Nd4 4.Nxe5?
3…Nd4 is only 4.8 % of Black's replies, and White scores 47.7 % after it. Taking the pawn with 4.Nxe5? is 24.1 % of White's answers; after 4…Qg5, White scores 21.6 %, and 7.9 % after 5.Nxf7?, the most frequent answer there. One possible finish: 5…Qxg2 6.Rf1 Qxe4+ 7.Be2 Nf3#, a smothered mate. 4.Nxd4 (40.3 %) scores 56.0 %.
The Ruy Lopez and the Scotch
| Black's reply against 3.Bb5 | Share | White's score |
|---|---|---|
| 3…Nf6 | 22.2 % | 54.0 % |
| 3…d6 | 21.9 % | 52.8 % |
| 3…a6 | 20.9 % | 53.8 % |
| 3…Bc5 | 11.4 % | 51.3 % |
| 3…Nd4 | 6.1 % | 51.7 % |
| 3…Nge7 | 5.6 % | 52.6 % |
Against 3…a6 (20.9 %), 4.Ba4 (44.4 %) scores 55.5 % and the exchange 4.Bxc6 (52.5 %) 52.7 %. Against 3…Nf6, the Berlin, White scores 54.0 %.
In the Scotch, 3…exd4 is 66.9 % of Black's replies. Then 4.Nxd4 (74.9 %) scores 53.4 % and 4.Bc4, the Scotch Gambit (14.6 %), 57.1 %.
Which one to choose
- On the results, 3.d4. 55.1 % against 53.2 % for 3.Bb5 and 52.8 % for 3.Bc4.
- With the Italian, know the Two Knights. 4.Ng5 scores 56.1 %; after 5…Na5, only 47.6 %.
- After 3…Nd4, take on d4, not on e5. 56.0 % against 24.3 %.
- With Black, after 4.Ng5 d5 5.exd5, the knight move 5…Na5 holds White to 47.6 %, against 63.4 % after 5…Nxd5.
To try them on the board: the Fried Liver, the Blackburne–Shilling trap and the Scotch Gambit in the app, and our move-by-move guides to the Italian Game and the Ruy Lopez. The scores of 20 openings at every level are in Which openings score best at your level.
Method
Source: ClickHouse table chess.opening_book (Lichess games 2013–2025, aggregated by position and rating band), queried on 8 October 2026. A band is the average of the two players' Lichess ratings; "1000–1599" sums the bands 1000–1199, 1200–1399 and 1400–1599. For each position, the occurrences of every move recorded from it and the result of their games. "Share" is the share of occurrences of a move among all moves recorded from the position. Score = (White wins + ½ draws) / occurrences.
Check it on your own games
Import a game from Lichess or Chess.com: Stockfish finds the moments that mattered, the coach explains them move by move.