London System vs Queen's Gambit: Lichess scores at 1000–1599
After 1.d4 d5 at 1000–1599 on Lichess, the Queen's Gambit scores a little more than the London, and nearly all of the gap comes from one reply: 2…dxc4.
After 1.d4 d5, we compare the Queen's Gambit (2.c4) and the London System (2.Bf4): how each one scores for White in the Lichess opening book, for players whose average rating is between 1000 and 1599.
How to read the figures. A score is White's share of the points: a win counts 1, a draw ½. We count occurrences of a position followed by a move, transpositions and repetitions included, so one game can count more than once. Unless a band is named, a figure covers players averaging 1000–1599, all time controls mixed. Figures are cut at one decimal. They are observed results: they do not control for the rating gap between players, and changing opening guarantees nothing.
After 1.d4 d5: 2.c4 scores a little more
| White's 2nd move | Share | White's score |
|---|---|---|
| 2.c4 | 34.0 % | 55.1 % |
| 2.Bf4 | 21.1 % | 54.2 % |
| 2.Nf3 | 15.2 % | 53.1 % |
| 2.e3 | 12.0 % | 51.6 % |
| 2.Nc3 | 8.2 % | 51.3 % |
2.c4 is the most played second move (34.0 %) and, of these five moves, the one that scores most for White: 55.1 %, against 54.2 % for 2.Bf4. The gap is under one point. After 1.d4 d5, the Queen's Gambit stays ahead in all five bands shown:
| White's score | 1000–1199 | 1200–1399 | 1400–1599 | 1600–1799 | 1800–1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queen's Gambit (1.d4 d5 2.c4) | 55.0 % | 55.1 % | 55.1 % | 54.6 % | 54.2 % |
| London (1.d4 d5 2.Bf4) | 54.7 % | 54.4 % | 53.9 % | 53.2 % | 53.0 % |
| 2.c4 against 1…Nf6 | 51.6 % | 51.5 % | 51.2 % | 50.7 % | 50.3 % |
| London against 1…Nf6 (2.Bf4) | 51.4 % | 51.2 % | 50.9 % | 50.7 % | 50.6 % |
Nearly all of the gap comes from 2…dxc4
| Black's reply | Share | White's score |
|---|---|---|
| 2…dxc4 | 31.1 % | 57.2 % |
| 2…e6 | 22.4 % | 54.0 % |
| 2…Nf6 | 16.8 % | 54.7 % |
| 2…c6 | 13.8 % | 53.0 % |
| 2…Nc6 | 4.5 % | 55.3 % |
| 2…Bf5 | 3.6 % | 53.7 % |
Taking the pawn with 2…dxc4 is 31.1 % of the replies recorded after 2.c4, and White then scores 57.2 %. Leave those occurrences out and the Queen's Gambit scores 54.1 %: almost level with the London (54.2 %). Against 2…e6 it is 54.0 %, against the Slav (2…c6) 53.0 %.
A trap to know: 3.e3 b5?
After 3.e3, 3…b5, which defends the pawn, is 22.5 % of the replies recorded. 4.a4 is 68.3 % of White's answers, and White then scores 67.3 %. After 4…c6 5.axb5 cxb5 6.Qf3, the queen attacks the rook on a8 along the long diagonal that Black's pawn moves opened; blocking on d5, c6 or b7 loses the piece that blocks. White's score: 77.0 %.
Against 1…Nf6, the gap shrinks
1…Nf6 is 12.5 % of the replies recorded after 1.d4, against 49.2 % for 1…d5. Then 2.c4 scores 51.3 % and 2.Bf4 51.1 %: three to four points less than after 1…d5, and only 0.2 point apart.
Against the London: 2…c5
| Black's reply | Share | White's score |
|---|---|---|
| 2…Nc6 | 30.9 % | 55.4 % |
| 2…Nf6 | 22.7 % | 53.8 % |
| 2…e6 | 17.7 % | 53.6 % |
| 2…Bf5 | 13.0 % | 53.4 % |
| 2…c5 | 4.2 % | 51.5 % |
| 2…c6 | 3.6 % | 52.9 % |
Among the six replies shown, the most common, 2…Nc6, is where White scores most (55.4 %). 2…c5 is rarer (4.2 %) and White scores only 51.5 % against it; after 3.dxc5 it is 47.1 %, below 50 %.
Which one to choose
- On the results, almost nothing separates them. 55.1 % against 54.2 % after 1.d4 d5, and nearly the whole gap is 2…dxc4.
- With the Queen's Gambit, know the 3.e3 b5 line. It is where White scores the most in this article (77.0 % after 6.Qf3).
- With the London, prepare 2…c5. It is rare, but of the six replies shown, it is where White scores least (51.5 %), and below 50 % after 3.dxc5.
- Against 1…Nf6, expect less. Both drop to about 51 %.
To try them on the board: the Queen's Gambit, the London and the 3.e3 b5 trap in the app, and our move-by-move guides to the Queen's Gambit and the London System. The scores of 20 openings at every level are in Which openings score best at your level.
Method
Source: ClickHouse table chess.opening_book (Lichess games 2013–2025, aggregated by position and rating band), queried on 8 October 2026. A band is the average of the two players' Lichess ratings; "1000–1599" sums the bands 1000–1199, 1200–1399 and 1400–1599. For each position, the occurrences of every move recorded from it and the result of their games. "Share" is the share of occurrences of a move among all moves recorded from the position. Score = (White wins + ½ draws) / occurrences. "Without 2…dxc4" counts every other move recorded after 2.c4.
Check it on your own games
Import a game from Lichess or Chess.com: Stockfish finds the moments that mattered, the coach explains them move by move.